Round five in the Super 14 kicks off in New Zealand on Friday with a bumper home derby between last year's finalists the Chiefs and the most successful Super Rugby franchise in history.
Making the final predictions is getting more difficult each and we are relieved that the Reds and Cheetahs are not playing each other this weekend as making that prediction will be a seriously tough one.
Chiefs vs Crusaders in Hamilton
As far as the Super 14 is concerned the honours are even between these two teams with two wins a piece. Overall it is a very different story with the Crusaders winning an alarming 10 of the total 14 clashes.
Last year the Crusaders beat the Chiefs in Christchurch which ended a two match losing streak for the Crusaders. Before that the Crusaders had enjoyed a winning run of 8 matches stretching from 1999 to 2006 which is proof of how the Chiefs have evolved.
Last week the Chiefs were upset by the Reds and they will be stinging badly. Going into the match the Chiefs were unbeaten after playing their first three matches away from home.
The Crusaders are bubbling along nicely and gaining momentum with recent wins over the Sharks and the Blues. The victory over the Sharks in week 3 could have been put down to the Sharks having traveled but last week's Blues victory over the Blues was a solid victory and it was achieved without the likes of Issac Ross and Thomas Waldrom.
For our prediction this week we are taking home advantage into consideration and the fact that the Chiefs will be stinging from last week's somewhat embarrassing Reds defeat.
The Bookies have given the Chiefs a 4.5 point start which puts the Crusaders to win by 4.5 points. We are going the other way and we are going to predict a Chiefs victory by 2.
Last five results.
14 Feb 2009 Chiefs v Crusaders 13-19 Christchurch
18 Apr 2008 Chiefs v Crusaders 18-5 Hamilton
04 May 2007 Chiefs v Crusaders 30-24 Christchurch
10 Mar 2006 Chiefs v Crusaders 19-25 Hamilton
05 Mar 2005 Chiefs v Crusaders 18-50 Christchurch
Chiefs Overall record against the Crusaders
Played 14 , Wins 4, Losses 10, Draws 0
Match Officials
Referee: Mark Lawrence (SA)
Ass. refs: Chris Pollock (NZ), Matthew Stanish (NZ)
TMO: Ben Skeen (NZ)
Teams
Crusaders - 15 Jared Payne, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Kahn Fotuali’i, 8 Kieran Read, 7 George Whitelock, 6 Richie McCaw (c), 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Ti’i Paulo, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Reserves: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Thomas Waldrom, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Adam Whitelock, 22 Colin Slade.
Waratahs vs Lions in Sydney
Last week's most talked about match was that of the Waratahs against the Sharks. The Waratahs won but they were far from impressive.
After a pacey game against the Bulls in week three the Waratahs were lackluster and frustrated fans to no end with pointless kicking and the Sharks definitely finished the stronger team. We are putting the Waratahs uninspired performance down to the fatigue from traveling back from Africa. They should be over the travel sickness this week.
The Waratahs have won the last eight matches between these teams and the Lions only victory was in Johannesburg when the Lions were a force to be reckoned with.
The Lions have brought Carlos Spencer in and Jano Vermaak returns on the bench. Last week the Lions lost 24-13 to the Brumbies who were suffering from the fatigue of the travel back from Africa. Whilst the Lions started fairly strongly they never really looked like winning against a tired team so this week the will struggle more against the Waratahs who should be over their fatigue.
If the Waratahs manage to play the game they way they did against the Bulls the Lions will be in trouble. If the Waratahs play the game the way they did last week they will have bigger problems because the fans will stop attending games and that will hit them hard in the pocket. The Waratahs need a big match.
The Bookies have given the Lions a 16.5 start. It's hard to argue against that prediction. Waratahs to win by 15.
Last Five results
15 May 2009 Waratahs v Lions 38-33 Johannesburg
19 Apr 2008 Waratahs v Lions 26-3 Sydney
02 Feb 2007 Waratahs v Lions 25-16 Johannesburg
10 Mar 2006 Waratahs v Lions 50-3 Sydney
12 Mar 2005 Waratahs v Lions 40-19 Johannesburg
Waratahs overall record against the Lions
Played 12, Wins 11 , Losses 1 Draws 0
Match Officials
Referee: Vinny Munro (NZ)
Ass. refs: Ian Smith (Aus), James Leckie (Aus)
TMO: George Ayoub (Aus)
Teams
Brumbies vs Sharks in Canberra
Phil Waugh said last week that the Sharks deserve to have a better record than four losses and he is right. The Sharks were unlucky to have lost last week but they have themselves to blame as much as the referee as their discipline has not been good.
Few will argue that the Sharks finished stronger than the Waratahs last week which shows that they are over the travel factor. They are also steadily improving too and their first victory can't be too far off.
At the start of the season we predicted that the Brumbies will have a strong season. Whilst they have achieved a record of three wins and one loss, their best match was arguably the first half against the Bulls.
They were lucky to come away with their round two victory over the Stormers after Joe Pietersen missed a conversion that would have leveled the scores. Last week wasn't a particularly impressive match for the Brumbies and Matt Giteau doesn't look completely comfortable.
This week the Brumbies should be over their jet lag and travel sickness and after four rounds they should be settled as a team. They have named an unchanged line up for the second time so the combinations should be settled.
At the time of writing the Sharks had not named their team yet but they have enough talent in a fairly balanced squad to be able to put out a strong team. There have been no reports yet of any major injuries so the team that will be named will be a strong one.
The Sharks have a poor record in Canberra. Their last victory in the capital city came back in 1998. Overall the Brumbies have a one match advantage over the Sharks having won 7 of the 13 matches. The average score between the teams is pretty close as well at 26-22 in favour of the Brumbies.
The Bookies have given the Sharks a 9.5 point start. Whilst the Sharks have had an awful start we don't believe that the Brumbies are nearly 10 points better than the Sharks. This will be close. Brumbies by 2.
Last five results
28 Mar 2009 Brumbies v Sharks 14-35 Durban
19 Apr 2008 Brumbies v Sharks 27-21 Canberra
24 Mar 2007 Brumbies v Sharks 21-10 Durban
11 Mar 2006 Brumbies v Sharks 35-30 Canberra
26 Mar 2005 Brumbies v Sharks 24-36 Durban
Brumbies overall record against the Sharks
Played 13 , Wins 7 , Losses 6, Draws 0
Match Officials
Referee: Garratt Williamson (NZ)
Ass. refs: AN Other (xx), Simon Moore (Aus)
TMO: Matt Goddard (Aus)
Teams
